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11 Dec 2013 The Beijing News


Experts' analysis indicate that 2014 will be the starting year of all-round deepened reform, and there will be more prominent reforms, as well as to continue to preserve "make progress while ensuring stability" ("稳中求进").

The Central Economic Work Conference will outline the China development for next year, and which specific content this will involve has captured the attention of all circles of society. There are experts that believe that from the news that leaked out from the Dec 3rd meeting of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party political bureau, that the whole macroscopic policy of 2014 will weaken growth, prominent reforms, and focus on increased quality for beneficial economic growth will become the keywords for next year’s reform. Reform will take precedence over growth, by no means imply to allow the Chinese economy to have a "hard landing"; make progress while ensuring stability as a central theme will not change.


1. Guessing reforms

How will the importance of reforms be revealed?

Must pay attention towards the implementation of central authorities' overall reform scheme, actively push on reform in emphasized fields, put forth effort to strengthen the internal dynamics of development.

-- The Dec 3rd Congress of the political bureau of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party

The stress on economic growth is perhaps no longer as prominent as in the past, but how to promote various reforms is the top priority.  Previously, the Organization Department of the Central Committee of the CPC appeared publicly regarding new regulations towards officials' assessment of career achievements, which clearly express not to regard GDP theory as a hero. Experts believe that this in some sense even more apparently indicates the importance of reform.

"At this time the Central Economic Working Conference not only will mention reform, but will stress reform". Director of China (Hainan) Institute for Development and Reform Chi Fulin expresses, 2014 will be the starting year for all-round implement of <CPC Central Committee decision concerning overall deepened reform for a number of important issues> from Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee; towards the future "take proper steps, make a good start" and establish a foundation.

Chi Fulin says, 2014 is the starting year of all-round deepened reform, and also a natural resources policy promotion year, after all in a reform program year the more prominent markets should with decisiveness make deepened economic institutional reform of the deployment of natural resources. He is full of confidence of the future economic growth, this time the Central Economic Working Conference will establish an institutional foundation for China's reform and development.

"There is no doubt, this time reform is the focus of the Central Economic Working Conference and very much worth looking forward to". Vice President Lu Feng at Peking University National Development Research Institute believes the direction established by the 3rd plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee, the Central Economic Working Conference will year-by-year comprehensively implement the decisions by the plenum, and judging by the decision blueprint push forward with all-round reform deployment, and present specific measures.

2. Guessing the central theme

"Make progress while ensuring stability" will still be stressed? Will overall implement 18th Party Congress and second plenum, the spirit of the 3rd plenum, persist with "make progress while ensuring stability" as a central work theme, make reform pierce through all fields and segments of society's economic development.

Speed up the economy - always a topic followed relatively closely of all circles of society. On the basis of previous years Economic Work Conferences, will not mention a specific GBP target, but set the overall tone. Before the Dec 3rd meeting of Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party political bureau convened, stress "make progress while ensuring stability", "must apply the reform spirit, thinking, and way to improve macroeconomic regulation; scientifically grasp macroeconomic regulation policy framework; preserve policy continuity and stability."

The director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Finance focus laboratory Liu Yuhui believes, that to set a target number for economic growth, is not at all the key problem; the key is how to handle logical relationship between reform and economic growth; that is the relationship between methods, structural adjustments, as well as economic growth, this is the core of the problem.

The director of China (Hainan) Institute for development and Reform Chi Fulin expresses, that this year China GDP growth estimated between 7.5%-7.8%, the target for 2014 has a slight adjustment. Because China presently is at a growth junction, GDP growth already go from high-speed double digit growth to middle high-speed growth at 7%-8%.

Many analysts also believes, that the central authorities will continue to keep "make progress while ensuring stability" for the economic work of 2014 as the central work theme. "Stability" is to guarantee a macro-economic policy for fundamental stability, steady economic growth and fundamental stability for general price levels; "Progress" is the demand to transform the pattern of economic development to obtain new progress, to make breakthrough in all economic reforms.

3. Guessing urbanization

Will the drive for urbanization be strengthened?

Walking a new type of path for urbanization, a new type of national urbanization implementation program appeared in public, to implement and perfect regional development program and policy, to strengthen the development ability of areas lacking development.

-- The Dec 3rd Congress of the political bureau of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party

"Actively and smoothly move forward with urbanization, put effort to improve quality of urbanization" is one of the main tasks for 2013 from last year's Central Economic Working Conference, and was also first time for "urbanization" to appear in the Central Economic Working Conference. So will this year continue to strengthen the drive the urbanization?

Chi Fulin believes, that 2014 is an important year for overall drive of new type of urbanization, and also the year to realize a shift for a new type of urbanization, realize a transformation from "urbanization of scale" to "urbanization of population", to continue establish a foundation for a new type of urbanization, and also realize 7% GDP growth of the endogenous driving force. Therefore, Economic Working Conference should refer to how to push forward with the urbanization problems.

By the middle of this month the National Urbanization Working Conference will convene and present a new type of urbanization program; some new mechanisms will be made public.

"The key to reforms shall be to create conditions for a new type of urbanization, this time the Central Economic Working Conference will elaborate more about urbanization". Lu Feng says urbanization is a concept that is parallel with modernization; in the future shall the implementation of a new type of urbanization be steadily pushed forward according to the spirit of the Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee.

4. Guessing environment

Will there be more outstanding environmental protection?

Will persist in green low carbon clean development, strengthen the system construction of ecological civilization, vigorously protect environment and ecology, not at all relax the efforts of energy saving and emission reduction, actively tackle climate change.

-- The Dec 3rd Congress of the political bureau of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party

In recent years, environmental protection problems has got more and more attention, recently from north to south, people everywhere has been made aware that a solution to the air quality etc environmental protection problems cannot waste any time.
"Environmental protection presently already entered a state of not making great effort won’t do." The director of China (Hainan) Institute for development and Reform Chi Fulin believes controlling smog, environmental protection already became a common demand for the whole society, and central government in the future will transform the pattern of economical growth, and eliminate outdated capacity. Heavy polluting industries, highly energy consuming industries, will be given restraints. This is also the inevitable choice for the future building natural-resources-saving and environmental-friendly "two types of society".

The associate director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies at CPC Party School Zhou Tianyong also believes, some polluting industries are simply excess capacity, so the environmental protection problem at the same time also is a structural adjustment problem. On one hand reduce the use of polluting energy, and at the same time increase the use of clean energy. This conference might mention this. Zhou Tianyong suggests carrying out pollution control of big steel mills, cement plants, chemical plants and melting shops. On one hand adopt administrative measures such as limiting production and shutdown etc, and on another hand increase the strength of checking environmental protection; need to strengthen the control of both air pollution and water pollution. Moreover, in actual implementation, it’s also possible laws and regulation will be revised, to increase the severity of environmental pollution punishment, for example increase the fine amount etc.

"The fragility of the environment shows, that the way of growth and growth model of the past already cannot continue." The director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Finance focus laboratory Liu Yuhui says the next year the whole society will deepen reform from all aspects, and environmental protection will be one aspect of the reforms.

5. Guessing the real estate

How will the real estate market be regulated?

Need to guarantee and perfect people's livelihood in a feasible way, implement a more active job policy, strengthen social security systems, promote reform and development of social programs, complete the work of housing guarantee and real estate market regulation.

-- The Dec 3rd Congress of the political bureau of the Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party

The real estate market will always be a closely followed hot issue, especially after the Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee, the strength of housing tax and low-income housing will increase, in that case, will the Central Economic Working Conference this time mention the real estate market or not?

"The next step is to actively and smoothly make public a real estate regulation, on one side increase social housing, and on another side make public relevant safeguard systems, prevent big fluctuations to occur in the real estate market." Chi Fulin states, for example making public a standard system for land sales, a standard system for real estate trade, a reasonable system for city planning etc. Moreover, actively implement the unified registration system set up by State Council for immovable property.

Liu Yuhui believes that real estate involves all aspects of economy and society, the essence is the problem of pattern of economical growth, there still exists systematical malpractices. If local governments do not adjust its view of GDP as guide for career achievements, and only make public a policy directed against a single special real estate market, that will repeat the conditions for the last ten years, with stop-gap solutions. Therefore policy-makers maybe will bring the real estate market into a deepened overall reform, a system solution.

Zhou Tianyong believes as this year's real estate price increase still is very fast, and it should therefore enter regulation, the fundamental problem is how choose means of regulation. He estimate next year there will be an obvious push in the aspect of real estate tax.


Written by bjnews reporters Li Lei and Jin Yu

2013-12-11 新京报



  1 猜想改革








  2 猜想基调








  3 猜想城镇化







  4 猜想环保








  5 猜想房地产








稿件采写/新京报记者 李蕾 金彧

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